文章 | Posts
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2026-10-05
英文报告 | Report (English)Quarterly overview CA-TPU averaged 105.76 in the third …
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2026-10-05
英文报告 | Report (English)Monthly overview CA-TPU stood at 120.47 in September 20…
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2026-09-01
英文报告 | Report (English)August 2026 · A concise edition for business and trade …
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2026-09-01
英文报告 | Report (English)Key Points In August 2026 the CA-TPU index rose to 101.65, up 6.8% month on month. The three-month moving average (MA3) fell to 114.71, down 20.0% on the month and only 2.9% above August 2025. In July the MA3 was still 27.0% above its year-earlier level; within one month that gap closed to near zero. The discourse pressure generated by the tariff war has returned to last year's level.
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2026-08-04
英文报告 | Report (English)July 2026 · A concise edition for business and trade pr…
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2026-08-04
英文报告 | Report (English)Key Points In July 2026 the CA-TPU index fell sharply to 95.16, down 35.4% month on month; the three-month moving average (MA3) slipped to 143.32, breaking below the 150 high-pressure threshold. This means that the high-pressure stretch running for four consecutive months from March — the longest since the index began in 2009 — formally came to an end this month. The raw index for July is the lowest reading since January 2025, and also the first fall back below the base-period mean of 100 since February 2025.
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2026-07-15
英文报告 | Report (English)Key Points In the second quarter of 2026 the CA-TPU index averaged 161.16 for the quarter, down 3.1% from the previous quarter (Q1 2026: 166.34) and sharply higher, by 40.7%, than a year earlier (Q2 2025: 114.56), ranking 4th among the 70 complete quarters since 2009. The more emblematic figure this quarter, however, is the quarterly average MA3 — 163.93, an all-time high, surpassing the 155.80 of Q2 2020. This is also the only quarter since the index began in which all three months sat in the MA3 ≥ 150 high-pressure zone (Q2 2020 had only two).
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2026-07-01
英文报告 | Report (English)June 2026 · A concise edition for business and trade pr…
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2026-07-01
英文报告 | Report (English)Key Points In June 2026 the CA-TPU index eased from May’s near-record high to 147.33, a 21.4% decline month on month; yet its three-month moving average (MA3) still registered 161.16, remaining above 150 — the high-pressure zone — for the 4th consecutive month (March–June). This is the longest high-pressure stretch since the index began in 2009 (the previous record was three months during the early COVID period of 2020). This month’s MA3 also entered the all-time top ten for the first time (5th), with 2026 alone now holding four of the top ten places.
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2026-06-11
英文报告 | Report (English)May 2026 · A concise edition for business and trade professionals | Source: CA-TPU Central Asia Trade Policy Uncertainty Index (catpu.caiees.cn) At a GlanceThe CA-TPU index rebounded sharply to 187.46 in May, and its three-month average rose to the 2nd highest on record, nearing the 2020 pandemic peak. But almost the entire surge came from Uzbekistan alone, while media terms such as “risk” and “sanctions” actually cooled — pressure is rising, but its source is narrowing.