文章 | Posts
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2026-06-11
英文报告 | Report (English)May 2026 · A concise edition for business and trade professionals | Source: CA-TPU Central Asia Trade Policy Uncertainty Index (catpu.caiees.cn) At a GlanceThe CA-TPU index rebounded sharply to 187.46 in May, and its three-month average rose to the 2nd highest on record, nearing the 2020 pandemic peak. But almost the entire surge came from Uzbekistan alone, while media terms such as “risk” and “sanctions” actually cooled — pressure is rising, but its source is narrowing.
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2026-06-11
英文报告 | Report (English)Key Points In May 2026 the CA-TPU index registered 187.46, a 26.1% rebound from April (148.68); its three-month moving average (MA3) rose to 173.21, the 2nd highest of all 209 months since 2009, trailing the June 2020 record (174.09) by just 0.88 points. The current high-pressure episode (MA3 ≥ 150) has now extended into its third month.
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2026-05-07
英文报告 | Report (English)A Concise Edition for Trade Practitioners Source: CA-TPU Central Asia Trade Policy Uncertainty Index (catpu.caiees.cn) At a Glance Although the April CA-TPU index dropped 19% from March on a single-month basis, the three-month moving average still places Central Asia's overall trade policy uncertainty at the 4th highest level among all 208 months since 2009. This is not a retreat in risk, but a further convergence of discourse pressure onto two main lines: "agreement negotiations" and "sanctions confrontation."
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2026-05-04
英文报告 | Report (English)Highlights of the Month In April 2026, the CA-TPU Index registered 148.68, down 19.0% from the previous month (183.48). However, the three-month moving average (MA3) stood at 157.43, ranking 4th in the entire historical record (after June 2020 at 174.09, March 2026 at 166.34, and September 2012 at 161.40). The data exhibits the classic pattern of "raw index moderating while the moving average remains at historical highs." The current pressure period (MA3 ≥ 150) has now lasted 3 months, matching the duration of the early COVID-19 pressure period.
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2026-04-29
英文报告 | Report (English)Executive Summary In Q1 2026, the CA-TPU Index averaged 166.34, up 44.9% from the previous quarter (Q4 2025: 114.78) and 74.1% year-on-year (Q1 2025: 95.56), marking the highest quarterly uncertainty level since records began in 2013. All three months exceeded 120, with January (175.43) and March (183.48) recording the fourth- and second-highest monthly readings in history. A total of 32,437 news articles were collected with 913 AND hits — both all-time quarterly records. Central Asian trade policy uncertainty has comprehensively entered historical highs under the dual pressure of US tariff implementation and ongoing secondary sanctions risks.
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2026-04-07
英文报告 | Report (English)Executive Summary In March 2026, the CA-TPU Index recorded 183.48, surging 31.0% from the previous month (140.11) and marking the second-highest reading on record since complete data became available in 2013, exceeded only by the 203.34 recorded in April 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The three-month trailing moving average (MA3) rose to 166.34, also setting a new all-time high. Trade policy uncertainty across Central Asia remains at significantly elevated levels, driven primarily by the continued escalation of US global tariff policies and their spillover effects on regional trade order.
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2026-03-12
英文报告 | Report (English)Executive Summary In February 2026, the CA-TPU Index recorded 140.11, retreating 20.1% from the previous month (175.43) and ending January's extreme peak. However, the three-month trailing moving average (MA3) continued to rise, from 131.60 to 138.56, setting a new multi-year high. This indicates that while monthly-level intensity has moderated, medium-term trade policy uncertainty pressure continues to accumulate. Year-on-year, the index rose 41.6% compared to February 2025 (98.93), remaining in the "elevated, warrants attention" range (120–150).
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2026-02-09
英文报告 | Report (English)Executive Summary In January 2026, the CA-TPU Index recorded 175.43, surging 75.2% from the previous month (100.13) — the largest single-month absolute increase on record since 2013. This marks the fourth-highest reading in history, exceeded only by April 2020 (203.34, COVID-19), July 2016 (179.45, Brexit), and July 2015 (176.88, tenge crisis). The three-month trailing moving average (MA3) rose to 131.60, up 14.7% from the previous month (114.78). Following a brief retreat in December 2025, the index rebounded sharply, driven primarily by the formal implementation of new US tariff measures.