文章 | Posts
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2026-08-04
英文报告 | Report (English)July 2026 · A concise edition for business and trade pr…
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2026-08-04
英文报告 | Report (English)Key Points In July 2026 the CA-TPU index fell sharply to 95.16, down 35.4% month on month; the three-month moving average (MA3) slipped to 143.32, breaking below the 150 high-pressure threshold. This means that the high-pressure stretch running for four consecutive months from March — the longest since the index began in 2009 — formally came to an end this month. The raw index for July is the lowest reading since January 2025, and also the first fall back below the base-period mean of 100 since February 2025.
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2026-07-15
英文报告 | Report (English)Key Points In the second quarter of 2026 the CA-TPU index averaged 161.16 for the quarter, down 3.1% from the previous quarter (Q1 2026: 166.34) and sharply higher, by 40.7%, than a year earlier (Q2 2025: 114.56), ranking 4th among the 70 complete quarters since 2009. The more emblematic figure this quarter, however, is the quarterly average MA3 — 163.93, an all-time high, surpassing the 155.80 of Q2 2020. This is also the only quarter since the index began in which all three months sat in the MA3 ≥ 150 high-pressure zone (Q2 2020 had only two).
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2026-07-01
英文报告 | Report (English)June 2026 · A concise edition for business and trade pr…
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2026-07-01
英文报告 | Report (English)Key Points In June 2026 the CA-TPU index eased from May’s near-record high to 147.33, a 21.4% decline month on month; yet its three-month moving average (MA3) still registered 161.16, remaining above 150 — the high-pressure zone — for the 4th consecutive month (March–June). This is the longest high-pressure stretch since the index began in 2009 (the previous record was three months during the early COVID period of 2020). This month’s MA3 also entered the all-time top ten for the first time (5th), with 2026 alone now holding four of the top ten places.
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2026-06-11
英文报告 | Report (English)May 2026 · A concise edition for business and trade professionals | Source: CA-TPU Central Asia Trade Policy Uncertainty Index (catpu.caiees.cn) At a GlanceThe CA-TPU index rebounded sharply to 187.46 in May, and its three-month average rose to the 2nd highest on record, nearing the 2020 pandemic peak. But almost the entire surge came from Uzbekistan alone, while media terms such as “risk” and “sanctions” actually cooled — pressure is rising, but its source is narrowing.
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2026-06-11
英文报告 | Report (English)Key Points In May 2026 the CA-TPU index registered 187.46, a 26.1% rebound from April (148.68); its three-month moving average (MA3) rose to 173.21, the 2nd highest of all 209 months since 2009, trailing the June 2020 record (174.09) by just 0.88 points. The current high-pressure episode (MA3 ≥ 150) has now extended into its third month.
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2026-05-07
英文报告 | Report (English)A Concise Edition for Trade Practitioners Source: CA-TPU Central Asia Trade Policy Uncertainty Index (catpu.caiees.cn) At a Glance Although the April CA-TPU index dropped 19% from March on a single-month basis, the three-month moving average still places Central Asia's overall trade policy uncertainty at the 4th highest level among all 208 months since 2009. This is not a retreat in risk, but a further convergence of discourse pressure onto two main lines: "agreement negotiations" and "sanctions confrontation."
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2026-05-04
英文报告 | Report (English)Highlights of the Month In April 2026, the CA-TPU Index registered 148.68, down 19.0% from the previous month (183.48). However, the three-month moving average (MA3) stood at 157.43, ranking 4th in the entire historical record (after June 2020 at 174.09, March 2026 at 166.34, and September 2012 at 161.40). The data exhibits the classic pattern of "raw index moderating while the moving average remains at historical highs." The current pressure period (MA3 ≥ 150) has now lasted 3 months, matching the duration of the early COVID-19 pressure period.
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2026-04-29
英文报告 | Report (English)Executive Summary In Q1 2026, the CA-TPU Index averaged 166.34, up 44.9% from the previous quarter (Q4 2025: 114.78) and 74.1% year-on-year (Q1 2025: 95.56), marking the highest quarterly uncertainty level since records began in 2013. All three months exceeded 120, with January (175.43) and March (183.48) recording the fourth- and second-highest monthly readings in history. A total of 32,437 news articles were collected with 913 AND hits — both all-time quarterly records. Central Asian trade policy uncertainty has comprehensively entered historical highs under the dual pressure of US tariff implementation and ongoing secondary sanctions risks.