文章 | Posts
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2026-04-07
英文报告 | Report (English)Executive Summary In March 2026, the CA-TPU Index recorded 183.48, surging 31.0% from the previous month (140.11) and marking the second-highest reading on record since complete data became available in 2013, exceeded only by the 203.34 recorded in April 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The three-month trailing moving average (MA3) rose to 166.34, also setting a new all-time high. Trade policy uncertainty across Central Asia remains at significantly elevated levels, driven primarily by the continued escalation of US global tariff policies and their spillover effects on regional trade order.
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2026-03-12
英文报告 | Report (English)Executive Summary In February 2026, the CA-TPU Index recorded 140.11, retreating 20.1% from the previous month (175.43) and ending January's extreme peak. However, the three-month trailing moving average (MA3) continued to rise, from 131.60 to 138.56, setting a new multi-year high. This indicates that while monthly-level intensity has moderated, medium-term trade policy uncertainty pressure continues to accumulate. Year-on-year, the index rose 41.6% compared to February 2025 (98.93), remaining in the "elevated, warrants attention" range (120–150).
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2026-02-09
英文报告 | Report (English)Executive Summary In January 2026, the CA-TPU Index recorded 175.43, surging 75.2% from the previous month (100.13) — the largest single-month absolute increase on record since 2013. This marks the fourth-highest reading in history, exceeded only by April 2020 (203.34, COVID-19), July 2016 (179.45, Brexit), and July 2015 (176.88, tenge crisis). The three-month trailing moving average (MA3) rose to 131.60, up 14.7% from the previous month (114.78). Following a brief retreat in December 2025, the index rebounded sharply, driven primarily by the formal implementation of new US tariff measures.